"Parties are unwilling to spell out the difficult choices on public spending and taxation that will confront the next government."
- Anita Charlesworth, Director of the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre
Health Foundation’s REAL Centre has projected a potential £38bn shortfall in funding to improve the NHS by the end of the next parliament. With pledges made by political parties failing to factor in such a figure, this analysis raises serious questions about the trade-offs facing the next government in balancing the funding needed by the NHS, pressures on other public services, and levels of taxation.
Health Foundation analysis shows that healthcare funding in England would need to rise by 3.8% annually in real terms (broadly in line with the historic average) over the next decade to meet rising care needs and deliver significant improvements in the NHS.
This includes higher annual growth of 4.5% in the first five years to allow the NHS to recover from the Pandemic and invest in modern services. This equates to an extra £46bn of funding in 2029/30. Compared with an increase of almost £8bn if the health budget grows in line with the planned growth in public spending - factored into the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) economic forecasts for the next parliament – this leaves a funding gap of £38bn.
Funding is vital for tackling NHS waiting times over the next decade. It will also allow the NHS to prioritise prevention and invest more in primary, mental health, and community care.
Health Foundation’s analysts have also highlighted the need to allocate a significant chunk of additional spending to capital investment. Health capital spending would need to rise from almost £13bn in 2024 to £21bn by 2029/30, and then to £27bn in 2034/35 to tackle the “crumbling NHS estate, add bed and diagnostic capacity, and improve IT systems.”
This would leave a £9bn gap in capital investment by the end of the parliament, compared to spending rises in line with OBR assumptions.
“The health service is in crisis and all the main political parties have said they want to fix it – yet the funding they have so far promised falls well short of the level needed to make improvements,” explained Anita Charlesworth, Director of the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre.
She said: “Politicians need to be honest with the public about the scale of the challenge, and the reality that an NHS fit for the future needs long-term sustainable investment.
“Honesty about this has so far been conspicuously lacking from the general election debate, with both the main parties unwilling to spell out the difficult choices on public spending and taxation that will confront the next government,” Anita concluded.
