"For insurers, the picture is becoming increasingly complex: more people may be diagnosed with cancer, even as fewer die from the disease."
- Swiss Re - Future of Cancer and Insurance report
Swiss Re’s Future of Cancer and Insurance report has revealed that combined death rates for five major cancers could drop by 14-36% by 2043.
Swiss Re projected incidence and mortality for breast, colorectal, lung, pancreatic and prostate cancer in the UK and US over a 20-year time horizon, splitting by sex and using respective age-standardised populations. Together, these five cancers account for around half of cancer mortality in the UK.
Death rates for lung cancer could see the most significant change, falling by as much as 50%, which Swiss Re attributes to advances in detection and treatment, as well as the long-term benefits of declining smoking rates.
However, the report states that the scale of improvement over the next two decades will vary based on cancer type, with cancers that are difficult to detect early and treat effectively expected to see more limited mortality improvements. For pancreatic cancer, mortality rates are projected to decline by just 5-20%.
What this means for insurers
Swiss Re says that the shifts in incidence and mortality present a growing challenge for UK insurers, as more people live with cancer and its long-term effects.
Longer survival, recurrence risks, and ongoing treatment could reshape demand for critical illness, income protection, and life insurance.
"Cancer is a defining and evolving risk for the Life & Health (L&H) insurance industry. It is a leading cause of death globally, and a major driver of claims across L&H business," the report says.
"Yet cancer is neither uniform nor static: it is a multi-stage disease characterised by substantial heterogeneity in tumour biology that may unfold over months, years, or decades.
"For insurers, the picture is becoming increasingly complex: more people may be diagnosed with cancer, even as fewer die from the disease."
The report adds that "progress against cardiovascular and other major causes of death may also enable more people to reach older ages where cancer risk is greatest. Understanding the interactions between these factors will be critical to anticipating how cancer risk evolves across insurance portfolios over the coming decades."
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In terms of critical illness (CI), it points out that "evolving staging, molecular classification, and varying risk thresholds may require continued refinement of cancer definitions and benefit thresholds," while "increasing incidence would likely translate into higher cancer claims." Higher detection of early-stage cancers could also alter the frequency and mix of claims.
In addition, it suggests a potential divergence between CI and mortality: "cancer could become less important as a cause of death while remaining or becoming more important as a CI driver of claims."
Regarding income protection, the report says that "advancements in treatment, survivorship care and rehabilitation should improve functional outcomes and support return to work."
However, "rising incidence and growing survivorship may also increase the number of claimants living with persistent or late treatment effects, potentially resulting in reduced work capacity and partial disability."
The report concludes by highlighting the need for insurers to understand "how trends in incidence, mortality and survivorship translate into insured populations," and how this will become "increasingly important for underwriting, pricing, claims and product design."
"This will help insurers continue to provide relevant and sustainable protection for individuals and families as cancer risk evolves. Ultimately, continued progress in preventing cancer, detecting it earlier and treating it more effectively can offer the opportunity for people to live longer, healthier lives."
