"With life expectancy becoming increasingly difficult to project, trustees, sponsors, and insurers alike should make sure they are considering this key area of uncertainty to better understand the financial implications of alternative scenarios."
- David Hamilton, Chief Actuary at Broadstone
In 2023, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) recorded 27,528 more registered deaths in England and Wales than the five-year average (excluding 2020). In England, 544,054 deaths were registered in 2023, which is 3,721 (0.7%) higher than in 2022 and 25,895 (4.8%) above the five-year average. 36,054 deaths were registered in Wales – this is 360 (1%) higher than in 2022 and 1,521 (4.2%) above the five-year average.
Notably, no English region was below the five-year average; the region with the largest percentage of deaths above the five-year average was the South West of England (6.3% higher) while London remained the closest to that average (0.8% higher).
Overall, more men (295,416) died compared to women (285,947) in 2023. This trend was also seen in 2021 and 2022.
“With an ageing population, the COVID-19 Pandemic, and a struggling NHS, it’s no wonder that we’ve seen mortality rates inch upwards over the past few years. While the data points to the Pandemic as the main driver behind the uptick in mortality rates, this potentially glosses over some more fundamental long-term problems and systemic issues that could affect the population for decades to come,” said David Hamilton, Chief Actuary at Broadstone.
He believes that “Understanding and allowing for these longevity risks will likely become an increasingly important consideration for insurers and those running and supporting pension schemes, as pressures on the NHS continue to swell and accessibility to effective healthcare declines.”
“With life expectancy becoming increasingly difficult to project, trustees, sponsors and insurers alike should make sure they are considering this key area of uncertainty to better understand the financial implications of alternative scenarios,” David concluded.
